中美贸易不平衡成因及相关分析

Causes of Sino-US Trade Imbalance and Relevant Analysis

本文认为,中美经贸关系是中国进出口贸易的集中写照。起始于1994年的中国出口导向政策,最直接的结果是中国外汇储备近2万亿美元,这种"高能货币"基于乘数效应在国内市场上形成至少60万亿人民币的购买力,这是形成流动性泛滥的真正原因。经过金融危机冲击的中美贸易,预计仍然将呈现增长的趋势,中美贸易顺差大一点好还是小一点好,取决了市场结构性变化。本文指出,通过对以往中美贸易结构的梳理,对应对这次金融危机以及进一步发展中国的进出口贸易都是十分必要的。

Sino-US trade and economic relation reflect the panorama of China's imports and exports.The high-powered 2000 billion dollars of China's foreign exchange reserve,resulted from China's export -oriented policy beginning in 1994,can reach into purchasing power of 60 trillion RMB based in multiplier effect,which is the real reason of excess liquidity.Although struck by credit crunch,Sino-US Trade will still rise in the future.Whether we should have a more favorable trade balance or less is decided by the change in market structure.A systematic review of the past Sino-US trade structure is essential to tackling the financial crisis and further development of China's imports and exports.