中国机场业发展的决定因素--基于扩展生产函数的实证分析

The Determinants of Airport Industry Development in China: Empirical Analysis Based on Augmented Production Function

本文基于1995-2006年地区机场和经济发展的面板数据,运用扩展的生产函数,对决定机场发展的因素进行了实证分析。结果显示:在长期内,机场发展与地区经济增长、产业结构、人口密度和对外开放程度呈正相关关系,与地面运输呈负相关关系;在短期内,机场发展与地面运输相互促进,二者呈正相关关系。因此,单一的GDP不能有效解释我国机场业的发展状况,机场规划和政策的制定必须考虑多个影响因素,将三种不同运输方式的发展政策纳入统一体系,促进三者的协调发展。机场发展的地区非均衡性不同于其它经济活动,东部地区的机场发展速度最慢而西部地区最快,表明东部地区机场密度大,机场之间的竞争激烈,地面运输对航空运输的替代性强,西部地区地广人稀,地面运输对航空运输的替代性弱。政府应加大西部机场建设,并把单一机场的发展纳入全国机场运输体系,根据整体市场发展状况,设计其建设容量和航线网络布局。机场改革是推动机场业发展的重要因素,政府应进一步加大机场改革的步伐和力度。

Based on the 1995-2006 regional airports and economic development panel data,this paper established an augmented production function to analyze the determinants of airport development in the Chinese regions.The empirical results indicate that: in the long term,airport development is positively related with economic growth,industrial structure,population density,and openness,but negatively related with ground transportation;in the short term,airport development is positively related with ground transportation.Therefore,a single GDP can not effectively explain the airport development situation;airport planning and development policy must take into account various factors.The non-equilibrium regional airport development is different from other economic activities.The airport growth in Eastern regions is slower and that in the Western is faster.This implies more significant substitution effect of air transport on ground transport in the less densely populated areas and there is intense competition between airport and ground transportation in Eastern region.Finally some policy recommendations are proposed.