河南第三产业与第一、第二产业互动关系研究

Research on the Interactions between the Tertiary Industry and the Primary/Secondary Industries in Henan Province

笔者通过构造河南省第一、三产业发展之间及第二、三产业发展之间关系的数学模型,分析在短期和长期均衡下第一、三产业之间及第二、三产业之间的关系,运用脉冲响应函数、方差分解模型来研究第一、三产业之间及第二、三产业之间的动态相关性。最后,根据计量分析结果得出河南省产业结构不合理的结论及河南省应注重第三产发展,以拉动第一、第二产业发展的政策主张。

With a mathematical model on the relationship between the primary industry and the tertiary industry and a mathematical model on the relationship between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in Henan Province, their interactions are studied in the assumed short-tem equilibrium and long-term equilibrium. Using the impulse response function and variance decomposition model, the dynamic interactions are also discussed. Finally, on the basis of the quantitive analysis result, the conclusion that the industry structure of Henan Province is unreasonable is drown and the policy proposal that Henan province should strengthen the development of the tertiary industry is made to promote the development of the primary and secondary industries.