旅游目的地客源市场预测模型新探索——以中国入境旅游为例

New Exploration Research of Tourism Destination——A Case Study of China Inbound Tourism

首先,通过引入旅游目的地游客量变化的速度和加速度两个旅游学参量,将旅游地生命周期曲线看作两段抛物线的组合,构建了基于不同参量状态的旅游目的地客源市场预测模型及其测量公式,并与已有的预测模型进行了对比研究,尝试探寻建立旅游目的地客源市场预测模型的新方法。然后,以中国入境游客量为例进行了实证研究,结果发现,模型与实际拟合较好。

In this paper, by introduction of tourist change parameter notion —— ＂Speed＂ and ＂acceleration＂,the author considers Tourism Area Life Cycle as two parts of parabola assemble, author establishes tourism destination forecasting model and its＇ measurement formulas based on different parameters state. These formulas are corresponding with different Regression Equations, which means every, constants in formula tins its＇ clear tourism meaning. The author takes Tourism Area Life Cycle Theory as this tourism forecasting model guidance and makes comparison with currently existing tourism destination forecasting models, tries to explore new method of tourism destination forecasting model. The author takes China inbound tourism as an example to verify it＇s correction, the results are in line with the actual tourism destination development process.