登革热传入风险预警量化指标体系的构建

Establishment of Quantified Appraisal System of Imported Risk of Dengue Fever

〔目的〕结合有关文献,筛选输入性登革热风险预警量化评价的指标,构建科学、合理、准确和量化的输入性登革热风险预警评价指标体系。〔方法〕采用德尔菲法(Delphi)设计,就指标体系的每一项指标选定专家进行征询。按专家对各指标的重要性评价,赋予每个指标相应的权重。〔结果〕输入性登革热风险预警评价指标细化成3级70项要求,编制成征询表。选定的专家按重要性分值1、3、5分对评价指标进行评价,剔除了59项3级指标要求中的9项(第1、2级指标只能确定权重,不能剔除),保留了50项(占84.7%);专家对整体《评价表》的重要性评价均值为3.50,1级指标要求为3.85;2级指标要求为3.56;3级指标要求为3.44,显示《评价表》的重要性较高,专家的意见集中程度较好。专家对各项指标的协调程度可以用该项评价的变异系数V表示。评价表中"疫情监测"的变异系数最低,为0.11;说明专家对这项指标的意见协调性最好,对其重要性认识一致性较高。专家对总体指标意见的协调系数为0.33(P<0.05),而对1级指标的意见协调程度最高,协调系数为0.56(P<0.05);其次为2级指标,协调系数为0.48(P<0.05),对3级指标的协调性较低,协调系数为0.31(P<0.05),可以判断本次研究的专家意见协调程度是较好的。〔结论〕通过对专家的问卷式征询,构成了由70项指标(1级指标6项,2级指标14项和3级指标50项)及其相应的权重组成的、3级树状结构的《输入性登革热风险预警评价量化指标体系评价表》。

Objective To select the indexes from the related literatures to form an appraising table sheet, and to provide the surveillance of imported dengue fever with a scientific, useful, easy operating and quantified appraising tool. Method Delphi model was adopted to concentrate the advices of the experts who specialized in the field of dengue fever, and master the weight of every index. Result The engaged experts scaled all of the indexes, and gave the importance value to each index by the importance grade value of 5, 3,1. According to the advices of the experts, 9 indexes were eliminated from the 59 given third grade indexes, and 50 （84.7 %） of them were retained. The experts put the importance of the average weight value of 3.50 to the whole appraising table sheet, 3.85 to the first grade indexes, 3.56 to the second grade indexes, and 3.44 to the third grade indexes. The min coefficient of variation on the indexes of ＂the surveillance of epidemic situation＂ was 0.11. It seemed that the experts could reach a consensus on this indexes. The harmony coefficient on the indexes system was 0.33（P〈 0.05）, and 0.56（P〈 0.05） to the first grade indexes, 0.48（P〈 0.05）to the second grade indexes and 0.31 （P〈 0.05） to the third grade indexes. Conclusion And now, the appraising table sheet as a three grade tree like structure by 70 indexes （6 of first grade, 14 of second grade and 50 of third grade） is constructed.