中国的实际经济周期与投资专有技术变迁

China’s Real Economic Cycles and the Change of Special Technology in Investment

本文首先确定中国经济周期波动的特征事实,发现改革开放以来中国的技术进步中存在明显的体现在设备资本中的投资专有技术进步特征。本文将投资专有技术变迁引入到一个具有内生的资本利用率的不可分劳动RBC模型,考察这种技术变迁及其冲击对中国经济周期波动的影响。通过与一个引入中性技术冲击的基本RBC模型的对比研究,本文发现,本文提出的模型能够解释76%以上的中国经济波动特征,并能较准确地解释包括就业在内的主要实际变量周期波动的特征事实,而基本RBC模型仅能解释中国经济周期波动的47%。研究结果证实了投资专有技术进步在短期上对中国宏观经济波动存在着影响,同时表明引入的传播机制对于将技术冲击放大和传播到经济环境中起到了重要作用。

Having confirmed the fact that there are special characteristics of the fluctuations of China’s economic cycles (CEC), we have found that, since China’s reform opening to the outside world, there have existed noteworthy features in the progress of the special technology in investment (STII) that are embodied in the investment in equipment. We have introduced the changes of STII into the Hansen-Rogerson model and investigated the effect of the change of STII and its shock on fluctuations of CEC. By comparing this model with a standard real economic model with exogenous neutral technological shocks, we have discovered that this model constructed by us can interpret more than 76% of the characteristics of the fluctuations of CEC, but the standard model of real economic cycles can explain 47%. The results of our study has verified that the progress in special technology in investment impacts on the fluctuations of China’s macro-economy, and has showed that the propagation mecha- nisms introduced by this paper played an important role in magnifying technological shocks and in propagating them to the economic environment.