我国火灾发生与经济发展长期关系的研究——基于协整理论的分析

Study of the long-term Relationships between the Fire Happening and Economic Development in Our Country - Based on the Analysis of l Integration Theory

对于一个国家或地区的管理机构来说,了解了火灾与经济因素的关系,可以从宏观的角度对一个地区的火灾防治、评估和预测给出有意义的建议。一直以来,火灾的基本原因被认为是放火、违章操作、用火不慎等等。但是现在人们逐渐发现,影响火灾发生的更基本的内在因素是经济因素。正是经济、人口等原因决定着一个地区的火灾情况。因此,研究火灾发生与经济发展的长期关系对于从宏观方面了解和预测一个国家或地区的火灾形势有着重要的意义。利用协整理论对我国火灾发生与经济发展的长期关系进行的分析研究表明,在我国,火灾发生与经济发展确实存在一定的均衡关系。

For a country or region management agencies, to know the relations of fire and economic factors can offer meaningful suggestions to fire prevention, assessment and prediction from a macro point of view. All along, the underlying causes offires are considered as arson, illegal operation, careless use of fire and so on, but now people have gradually found that the impact of fires happening are economic factors fundamentally. Therefore, the study of long-term relationship between fire happening and economic development is very important to know and predicate the fire situation from the macro aspects. Using integration theory to analyze the long-term relationship of our fire and economic development have shown that the fire happening and economic development has equilibrium relationship in our country.