剧烈动荡的液化石油气市场——“第十四届中国LPG国际会议”综述

LPG market turbulence——Summary of the 14th International Conference on LPG in China

受国际油价影响,2008年国际市场液化石油气(LPG)价格呈先暴涨后猛跌的走势。全年全球LPG产量为2.39亿吨,比上年增长4.37%;LPG需求量为2.39亿吨,比上年增长4.82%。2008年国内LPG市场也出现巨大变化:产量、消费量双双下降;进口大幅缩减,出口猛增。全年我国LPG产量为1860万吨,同比下降4.4%;消费量为2150万吨,同比下降8%;进口量为260万吨,同比减少35.9%,为1995年以来的最低水平。2008年我国新增LPG船运能力是报废能力的18倍,船舶老化现象已得到根本改变,但整个行业面临运力严重过剩、市场竞争过度、效益大幅下滑的局面。同时,动荡的国际市场环境对我国LPG进口企业影响巨大,一些进口企业在困境中寻求增加转口贸易。随着经济的复苏,预计未来几年全球原油和LPG价格都将再次攀升,但不会达到2008年的水平;国内市场2009年LPG产销量都将有所增长。

The international market price for LPG rose suddenly then fell sharply in 2008 under the influence of the international oil price. In 2008 global LPG output was 239 million tons, up 4.37% over the previous year; demand for LPG was 239 million tons, up 4.82% over the previous year. Tremendous changes occurred in China’s domestic LPG market in 2008: both output and consumption dropped; imports scaled down significantly, while exports increased suddenly. China produced, consumed and imported 18.6 million tons, 21.5 million tons and 2.6 million tons of LPG in 2008, respectively down 4.4 percent, 8 percent and 35.9 percent from the previous year, with imports at their lowest level since 1995. In 2008 China added new shipping capacity 18 times greater than the scrapped capacity, dramatically reversing the phenomenon of aged vessels, but saddling the entire industry with serious transport over-capacity, excessive market competition and greatly reduced profits. In addition international market turbulence significantly affected China’s LPG import companies, forcing some of them to seek re-export trade. The price of crude oil and LPG in the international market is expected to go up again in the next few years with economic recovery but not to reach the 2008 level, and both production and sales of LPG in the domestic market are expected to increase in 2009 to some extent.