利率与通货膨胀率关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Interest Rate and Inflation Rate

一般认为,利率与通货膨胀率之间存在负相关关系,然而现实当中加息之后通常都会使通货膨胀加剧。运用黑箱分析方法可以得到宏观的"费雪效应"关系式,即名义利率与通胀率之间存在明确的正相关关系。这一关系式可以得到历史事实的验证。因此,传统货币政策的调控思路有必要与时俱进地拓展。

It is generally believed that interest rate and inflation rate are negatively related. However, higher interest rate policies are often followed by higher inflation in practice. With the black-box method, a ＂Fisher effect＂ formula can be derived. This formula shows that the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate are positively associated at the macro-level. It can be proven by historical facts. Therefore, the traditional understanding on adjusting the monetary policy should be corrected as time goes on.