2008年中国石油和化学工业经济形势分析

Analysis:the economic status of China's oil and chemical industries,2008

受全球金融危机的影响,2008年中国石油和化学工业经济呈现先高后低的态势,全行业景气周期由10年来的高增长转为下行通道。2008年全行业总产值6.58万亿元,比上年增长24.0%,生产增幅先高后低,年底出现负增长;市场疲软,销售率下降;石油和化工产品价格呈现先涨后跌态势;亏损企业增加,全行业利润下降;固定资产投资增势回落;进出口贸易额先增后降。当前面临的主要困难和问题有:1)石油消费需求减少,炼油企业开工率持续走低;2)化肥库存大量积压,企业经营困难;3)劳动密集型产业亏损严重;4)出口严重受阻,国内市场面临进口产品冲击。未来两年石油和化工行业形势不容乐观。但随着国家相关政策的落实,2009年产业结构、产品结构、企业兼并重组以及企业自身结构调整将非常活跃,前两个季度是石油和化工行业最为困难的时期,下半年有望好转。

Due to the global financial crisis,China's oil and chemical industry saw a high-low trend in 2008.What had been a decade-long cycle of growth became an industry-wide decline.Across the industry,2008 output totaled RMB 6.58 trillion,a 24.0% increase over the previous year;however,the year saw a rise in growth followed by a decline,with the industry posting negative growth by year end.Sales dropped off in the weak market,and prices for oil and chemical products,which had been on the rise,began falling.There was an increase in the number of companies operating at a deficit,and profits fell industry-wide.Growth also slowed in fixed-asset investment,and total import and export growth experienced a reversal.Currently,the industry's major difficulties and problems include:1) Consumer demand for oil is falling,and refineries are experiencing an ongoing decrease in operating rate.2) Stocks of fertilizer are piling up,making it difficult for companies to do business.3) Labor-intensive industries have suffered heavy losses.4) While exports are subject to strict constraints,imported products are undermining the domestic market.The next two years offer little cause for optimism in China's oil and chemical industry;however,as national policies come into effect,2009 will be an extremely active year for changes to industry and product structure,corporate mergers and reorganizations,and internal restructuring.The oil and chemical industry will face its worst trials during the first two quarters,and a turnaround is possible in the second half.