基于回归分析的粮食产量影响因素分析

On the Factors Influencing Grain Output by Using Regression Analysis

主要采用回归分析的方法对1990—2005年影响我国粮食产量变化的主要因素进行分析,建立了以粮食产量为应变量,粮食作物播种面积、有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、化肥施用量和成灾面积五种可量化的影响因素为自变量的多元线性回归模型,利用模型对各个因素进行了比较分析.同时,对模型进行检验,在此基础上提出了一些关于稳定发展粮食生产的可供参考的意见.

In this paper, by using regression analysis, the author will analyze the main factors of the impact of 1990 - 2005 China＇s grain output, by setting up a multi - variable linear regression model using grain output as dependent variable and the sown area of grain crops, the effective irrigation area, the total power of agricultural machinery, chemical fertilizer and disaster area as independent variable in order to compare and study the different factors. This paper will also test the model, and then give some advisory opinions to develop stably the grain production on this basis.