应用3种方法对某市吸毒人群基数估计实践研究

Three approaches used to estimate the population size of drug users in a certain city

目的采用3种不同的基数估计方法对某市吸毒人群的基本规模进行估计,并综合3种方法所得结果,为吸毒人群艾滋病防治工作提供科学依据。方法对某市8个戒毒所登记在册的吸毒者调查,运用公安、司法等部门相关人员定性估计方法、捕获-再捕获法和简易乘数法对全市吸毒人群进行基数估计。结果该市公安部门登记在册的吸毒者共15856人,相关人员定性估计法估计该市吸毒人群基数约为32653人,捕获-再捕获法估计为85786～99446人(中位数为96407人),简易乘数法估计为39106～50678人(中位数为48398人),综合3种方法得到该市吸毒人群基数约为42900～90004人。结论该市吸毒人群的估计数量为登记在册人数的2.71～5.68倍。在实际工作中应在定性估计结果的基础上,根据实际需要,综合运用各种估计方法,以获得更准确的数字。

Objective To provide an accurate size for HIV/AIDS control and prevention among drug users in a certain city by integrating the results from three different estimate methods. Methods Investigations were conducted among the drug users in 8 detoxification centers of the certain city. Qualitative result was estimated by special person from police or justice department. Simplified multiplier method and capture - recapture method were used to obtain the quantitative results. The population size was educed by the results from three different methods. Results The registered number of drug user in this municipality wasl5 856,it is 32 653 by using the qualitative estimate, 85 786 to 99 446 by using the capture - recapture method, and 39 106 to 50 678 by using the simplified multiplier method. The estimated size of drug user in this municipality was in the range of 42 900 to 90 004 by integrating the three methods. Conclusion The estimated size of drug users in this city was 2.71 to 5.68 times as high as the registered number of drug users. Three methods should be integrated to get a more accurate size of drug users based on the qualitative result for actual daily work.