北京市潜在经济增长率测算与HP滤波平滑参数探讨

Analysis on the Estimation of the Potential Economic Growth Rate in Beijing and HP Filtering Smoothing Parameter

生产函数法与多变量结构化分解法不适用于测算地区潜在产出。使用HP滤波法对1982-2007年北京市潜在经济增长率进行测算，对未来潜在经济增长率的水平及适度增长区间做初步预测。分析表明，应参考经济理论和实际经济运行状况，不同参数的HP滤波器需结合使用。

The production function method and the multivariable structural decomposition method are not appropriate to estimate the regional potential output. The potential economic growth rates in Beijing from 1982 to 2007 are estimated by using HP filtering method, and the level of the potential economic growth rate in the future and the moderate growth range are predicted. The analysis shows that economic theories and the practical economic status should be considered, and the HP filters of different variables should be used together.