越南通胀成因的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Causes of the Inflation in Vietnam

2008年前后,越南持续出现通货膨胀。对此,社会普遍认为主要是经济过热、国际油粮价飙升、FDI增长过快及"入世"等原因所造成。但是,通过计量分析发现国际油价并非越南通胀的原因;粮价上涨在更大程度上是通胀的结果;FDI对物价的影响并无印象中大;"入世"的确给越南带来长期通胀压力;投资与物价总体上负相关;物价受其自身滞后期影响最大。这些与社会一般判断不尽相同的发现对认识通胀成因、制定通胀对策具有理论和现实意义。

Continuous inflation appeared in Vietnam believes that this is due to the reasons such as overheated and grain prices, fast growth around 2008. The society generally economy, soaring of international oil of FDI and the ＂enter into WTO＂. However, through quantitative analysis, the author finds that international oil price is not the reason of the inflation in Vietnam; the price increase of grain is the result of the inflation to a large extent; the influence of FDI on commodity price is not so big as imagined; the ＂enter into WTO＂ indeed brings long - term pressure to Vietnam; invest has negative correlation with commodity price in general; and commodity price is greatly influenced by its lag period. These findings have theoretical and practical significance to the understanding of inflation and the countermeasures as well.