长江河口段潮位预报及实时校正模型

Study on Tidal Level Forecasting and Real-time Correction Model for Yangtze River Estuary

针对长江河口段潮位周期性变化规律,采用调和分析法建立了潮汐预报模型,根据对分析期若干年潮位推算揭示了误差与上游径流间关系,并建立了以上游大通水文站实测流量为输入的实时校正模型。潮汐预报模型与实时校正模型相结合,既可提前预知长江河口段的水情,又能根据动态掌握的大通流量信息对前期预报结果实时校正以提高预报精度,对类似河段的潮位预报具有参考价值。

The variation regularity of tidal level in Yangtze River estuary was analyzed, and a tidal forecasting model was established by harmonic analysis. Tidal levels of past several years were calculated by the model, and calculation errors were analyzed. A real-time correction model regarded upstream discharge as input was presented. The tidal forecasting model can forecast tidal level long before it actually happens, and the real-time correction model can correct the forecasted level according to real-time upstream discharge,it will provide a beneficial reference for similar estuaries.