宁夏扬黄新灌区农业生产模式与人均纯收入关系研究

Relationship between mode of agricultural production and net income per capita in new irrigation area pumping water from the Huanghe River

通过多因子逐步回归分析表明,单因子对人均纯收入影响的大小顺序为:设施温室>牧草>养殖.双因子协作对人均纯收入影响的大小顺序为:牧草×设施温室>经济作物×牧草>粮食×养殖>牧草×养殖>粮食×牧草>粮食×设施温室>经济作物×养殖.通径分析表明,牧草种植面积与人均纯收入呈正相关,牧草种植面积对人均纯收入的直接效应值大于相关系数.宁夏扬黄新灌区的发展需要改善农业生产条件,促进农业的结构调整,提高农业的综合生产能力.只有使农业和牧业有效地结合,提高系统的耦合性,才能显著增加群众的经济收入.

The results of multi-factorial stepwise regression analysis showed that the effects of single factor on net income per capita were ranked as follows： greenhouse 〉 forage〉 breeding. The effects of cooperation of dual factor on net income per capita were ranked as follows： forage×greenhouse〉economic crops × forage〉grain × breeding〉 forage × breeding〉grain × forage〉grain× greenhouse〉 economic crops× breeding. The path analysis showed that the area of forage planting was positively correlated with net income per capita. The direct effect of the area of forage planting on net income per capita was greater than correlation coefficient. The development of new irrigation area pumping water from the Huanghe River needed to improve the conditions for agricultural production and to promote structural adjustment. Only effective combination of agriculture with animal husbandry and improvement of system coupling can enhance the income of farmers significantly.