班轮承运人收益展望

Carrier profitability outlook——Many carriers will suffer losses this year and beyond

许多承运人将从今年开始蒙受损失 去年，承运人原本以为，可以通过减少跨太平洋船运来避免运力过剩。因为这一航线的回程运载量有所下降，承运人可以将他们新的超巴拿马型货船投入到增长强劲的亚欧贸易中。但是到了年中，世界经济开始衰退，导致需求下降，亚欧航线的运载量增长减缓。运力过剩和利润率下跌使得所有承运人开始在该航线上遭受损失。这同时也意味着，他们的大型货船无用武之地了。

Carriers thought they could dodge overcapacity last year by trimming services in the trans-Pacific,where head-haul volumes were dropping,and putting their big new post-Panamax ships in the Asia-Europe trades,which started out strong.But by midyear volumes slowed on that route,as the onset of the global recession cut demand.Stuck with overcapacity and falling rates,all carriers started losing money on that route.That meant they also ran out of places to stash their big ships.Profitability,or perhaps more accurately,reduced losses this year will be determined by how well carriers can manage the huge supply of new vessel capacity that is being delivered just as demand for that capacity has fallen off a cliff because of the ongoing credit crisis and the spreading global recession.Any incipient recovery in the major east-west trade lanes by the third quarter will not be enough to rescue bottom lines from red ink by year-end.