我国江淮流域温度和降水持续性变化的研究

STUDY ON PERSISTENCE CHANGE OF JIANGHUAI TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

引用序贯抽样的思想，应用Ｒａｄｏｋ提出的持续性变化检测方法，并结合经验正交函数的分析，揭示了我国江淮流域４２年来气温和降水持续性变化的主要特征。采用滑动法和变化小样本数的方法。分别求出持续性发生变化的具体时间以及不同层次的持续性变化，后者反映了各种时间尺度的气候变化，其中包括十年际时间尺度的气候突变。

Through sequential sampling and Radok′s climatic persistence change testing in connection with EOF analysis, revealed are the main features of 1951～1992 persistence change in rainfall and temperature over the Jianghuai valleys of China, followed by adopting a sliding method and augmenting the number of small samples so as to find the time interval of the change and those at different levels, the latter indicating a range of time scales of climatic variation, with the inclusion of its sudden change on an interdecadal basis.