日元持续升值原因分析及其对人民币汇率变动的启示

Analysis of the Reasons for the Continued Appreciation of the Yen and its Inspiration to RMB Exchange Rate Changes

实证表明,日元汇率在短期存在羊群效应,在长期存在向均值回归的趋势。通过分析日元汇率的波动特征与美国经济运行之间的关系,发现日元持续升值取决于美国经济的内外部均衡状况以及由此产生的市场预期。中国自2000年以后超过日本成为美国最大的贸易顺差国,人民币于是承受了巨大的升值压力。如果中国不能有效减少对美国的贸易顺差,那么人民币面临的升值压力可能是持久的。

The real diagnosis indicated： A Japanese Yen exchange rate has the flock of sheep effect in the shortterm, in long--standing to average value return tendency. Through between the analysis Japanese Yen exchange rate＇s fluctuation characteristic and the American economy movement＇s relations, discovered that the Japanese Yen revalues continually is decided the market forecast which as well as produces from this in the American economy＇s internal and external balanced condition. China after 2000 surpassed Japan to become the US biggest trade surplus country, the Renminbi has therefore withstood the huge revaluation pressure, if China could not reduce effectively to US＇s trade surplus, then the Renminbi faced the revaluation pressure possibly was lasting.