黄淮流域夏半年旱涝概率时空分布的研究

RESEARCH ON THE DROUGHT AND WATERLOGGING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION DURING SUMMER HALF YEAR IN HUANGHUAI VALLEY

利用Γ分布模式拟合区域降水百分率的概率分布，由此推求黄淮流域夏半年（４～１０月）旱涝概率，并探讨该区出现各级旱涝概率的时空分布特征。结果表明，该方法具有相当的客观性，为旱涝灾害研究提供了一条新途径。各级旱涝概率的空间分布反映了各地旱涝频发程度的区域特征和季节变动，揭示了大旱大涝灾害的脆弱区分布特点。文中推导的区域旱涝概率与Γ分布参数α的经验关系，为推断无资料地区旱涝概率提供了可能性。

Based on the fitting of the probability distributions of regional precipitation percentage using the Γ distribution model,the drought and waterlogging probabilities are obtained in Huanghuai valley in summer half year (from April to October) and their's spatial distribution and seasonal variations are also examined.The results show that this method is quite objective,and it provides a new way for studying the drought and waterlogging damage.The spatial distribution of probability for different degrees of drought and wateriogging displays the regional feature and seasonal variation of the occurrence frequencies of drought and waterlogging in different areas.The empirical relationship between the regional drought and waterlogging probabilities and the parameter α of the Γ distribution is derived,and by which the drought and waterlogging probabilities in some areas where no data is usable can be estimated.