济阳坳陷预探圈闭影响因素分析

The influential factors of exploratory trap analyzing in Jiyang Depression

济阳坳陷已进入隐蔽油气藏勘探阶段,1995年以来预探圈闭情况统计表明,预探圈闭效果影响因素主要有地质条件、勘探程度、地质认识、技术进步和勘探投入等。地质条件、资源规模等基础因素仍然是影响预探圈闭效果的决定因素之一,地质条件优越的富油凹陷或区带,预探圈闭成功率高、勘探潜力较大。预探圈闭钻探效果与勘探程度基本呈负相关关系,勘探程度较低的古生界、深层和潜山圈闭升级率较高;勘探程度较高的古近纪、浅中层和构造圈闭预探成功率下降。圈闭升级率的变化反映了地质认识、技术水平等对圈闭勘探效果的影响。勘探技术发展和进步是提高济阳坳陷圈闭预探水平的有力保障,也是近期保持济阳坳陷探圈闭勘探不断取得新发现和突破的重要原因之一。在隐蔽油气藏勘探阶段,勘探程度较高,钻探的目标复杂隐蔽,勘探的风险增大,足够的预探工作量投入,是保证良好的资源序列和可持续发展条件之一。

The exploration of Jiyang depression has been on the stage of subtle reservoir exploration. According to the statistic of exploratory trap since 1995, the influential factors of exploratory trap effectiveness are mainly geologic setting, degree of exploration, geologic knowledge, technical assistance, the investment of exploration fund and so on. But the elementary factor such as geologic setting and resource extent .etc remain the determinative factors of exploratory trap effectiveness. The effectiveness of exploratory trap have higher success ratio and larger exploration potentiality in the oil-enriched sag of superior geologic setting than the other bad ones. There is an elementary relationship between the exploration drilling effectiveness and degree of exploration of exploratory trap. The trap of Palaeozoic, deep zone and buried hill with lower degree of exploration have higher upgrade rate; The trap of Paleogene , shallow-middle zone and structure with higher degree of exploration have the degressive success ratio. The change of trap upgrade rate has reflected the influence of geologic knowledge, technique .etc to the exploration effectiveness of trap. The development of exploration technique is the forceful safeguard of raising the success ratio of exploratory trap in the Jiyang depression. It is one of the significant reasons of making continuous progress and achievement of exploratory trap of Jiyang depression in the present time too. On the stage of subtle reservoir exploration ,the higher degree of exploration and the more complicate drilling target exist, the higher exploration hazards will go on. The sufficient work capacity of exploration is one of the conditions of sustainable development and assuring good resources series.