涨落差法原理再分析

Analysis of Theory of Fluctuation Difference Model

在我国有一种被称为涨落差法的水位预报方法已应用了约50年,此方法来源于水文预报实践经验的总结,因此被视为一种经验方法。本文对涨落差原理进行了再分析,从河道洪水扩散波方程入手,证明河道上、下游断面水位涨落差法的计算公式的本质为河道洪水扩散波的数值解。本文还对应用中遇到的一些问题进行了讨论。

In China, a flood stage in flood forecasting. This model forecasting, called as fluctuation difference model has been used for 50 years came from the summarizing of flood forecasting experience, therefore, it is regarded as an empirical model. Based on analysis of river flood diffusion wave theory, it is proved that the fluctuation difference model is a kind of numerical solution of river flood diffusion wave. Some discussion on application of the fluctuation model method are included.