我国经济和社会发展中必须重视石油峰值问题

Peak Oil-A Great Issue to China's Economic and Social Development

石油峰值(Peak Oil)是指某一区域(全球、地区、国家、油区等)石油产量的最大值及其来临的时间。世界石油产量到达峰值并不意味着全世界已将石油消耗怠尽,也不意味着人类不可能在地球上再发现新的油田,只是新发现的油田的石油产量越来越无法弥补已开发油田产量的下降,世界石油供应量不可能再增加,不能满足人类日益增长的需求。许多研究表明世界石油产量正在进入峰值平台期,随时都可能出现资源长期短缺的石油危机。我国的石油消费一直以较快的速度增长,石油也许很快成为我国经济发展的瓶颈。本文提出了石油峰值——我国经济和社会发展中必须重视的一个重大问题,希望大家尤其是主管部门和高层决策者充分认识石油峰值的内涵和挑战,高度重视我国面临的潜在的石油危机,认真落实科学发展观、未雨绸缪,提早采取应对策略以实现我国经济社会的可持续发展。

Peak oil is the maximum of oil production in a region （an oil field, a country or the whole world） and at time when the maximum of production is reached. To reach the Peak Oil does not mean that the world has run out of oil, or that a new oil field can not be found by human beings. Peak Oil means that the oil production of newly discovered oil fields can not make up production decline of oil fields, and the world oil supply won＇t increase any more, which cannot meet human＇s demand for oil. Many studies show that global oil production is reaching the peak period, which may cause oil crisis at anytime in the future. China＇s oil consumption has been increasing rapidly, and oil would become a bottleneck of China＇s economic development. The paper is about Peak Oil a great issue to China＇s economic and social development. We, especially government departments and senior policy-makers, are expected to fully recognize the meaning of Peak Oil and challenge it brings to us. We should attach great to the potential oil crisis facing to us, seriously carry out the Scientific Outlook on Development and adopt countermeasures to achieve economic and social sustainable development in China.