基于模糊积分多元决策模型的电源开发排序

Order of Optimal Development for Power Station Based on Fuzzy Integral Multi-index Decision

在分析影响电源的开发排序各种因素的基础上,根据模糊积分的有关理论,对基于模糊测度的模糊积分加以改进,给出了基于多层模糊积分多元决策的电源开发排序模型,并归纳出用该模型进行电源开发决策与排序的一般步骤,研制了相应的计算程序,最后成功地应用该模型进行了四川省中型水电站群的开发排序。分析结果表明,在考虑系统容量电量平衡及电网水火电比重发展趋势的基础上,基于模糊积分多元决策模型电源的开发排序,可以全面合理地刻画系统中的各种定性与定量指标,按各中型电站的整体指标优劣进行取舍是合理的,同时应用该模型可以开展其它复杂系统的综合决策。

Based on the analysis of affecting factors on power station development system,the multiple-stage and multi-objective fuzzy integral decision model about definitive set is presented by improving the fuzzy integral on the basis of fuzzy measure.The computer program for applying the model to solving multi decision-making problem is given.The feasibility of its model is verified through the optimal sequencing and scheduling of the 23 middle-sized hydropower stations in Sichuan province.The given example shows that this model can be successfully used to optimize the order of optimal development for power stations system,with satisfying the requirements of capacity and energy and considering the developing trend of hydropower and thermal power proportion in power system.At the same time,other complicated systems can be easily evaluated by using the decisional model above.