基于资本流动逆转的货币危机理论——兼论我国应对危机冲击的策略选择

Currency Crisis Theory based on Capital Flow Reverse——Concurrent Study on Our Strategies for Crisis

货币危机理论是当前国际经济学研究热点之一,在已有的三大危机理论中均有关于货币危机与资本流动的论述,但均是通过已构建的模型寻找货币危机和资本流动逆转的原因,而非阐述资本流动逆转与货币危机的内在关系,对当前因资本流动逆转所引发的货币危机缺乏解释力。本文拟从资本流动的宏观视角出发,运用数理模型推导汇率与资本流动内在关系表达式,利用资本流动模型构建资本流动逆转货币危机理论分析框架,探讨资本流动逆转货币危机对我国的影响和冲击,并提出应对之策。

Currency crisis theory is one of the focuses of current international economics. Although currency crisis theory and capital flow reverse are discussed in three main crisis theories, these theories just search the cause of currency crisis and capital flow reverse by established models, which is not helpful for identifying the inner-relationship between currency crisis and capital flow reverse and not useful for explaining the current currency crisis that has been caused by capital flow reverse. The article, through inner-formulas between exchange rate and capital flow derived from mathematical models and theoretical basis of capital flow reverse and currency crisis theory based on capital flow model, discusses the impact of capital flow reverse on our country and puts forward counter-measures from the perspective of macro-capital flow.