人民币实际汇率的决定及其调整趋势研究

Determination of RMB Real Exchange Rate and Its Trend of Evolvement

本文通过VAR模型证实了生产率、国内消费需求和国际收支状况等因素是人民币实际汇率的决定因素。虽然巴拉萨———萨缪尔森效应在我国存在,但是并不明显,我国长期以来的国内消费需求不足导致了人民币实际汇率的持续低估。在经济基本面因素不变的情况下,人民币仍将保持走低趋势,但是随着我国经济结构的优化升级、生产率的持续增长和国内消费需求的不断提高,人民币实际汇率将会趋于不断升值。

Through a VAR model, this paper testifies that productivity, consumption and balance of payments are the fundamental factors that determine RMB real exchange rate. Balassa-Samuelson effect, although existing in China, is very weak. The persistent insufficiency of domestic consumption leads to undervaluation of RMB exchange rate. If there are not essential changes in fundamental factors （including productivity, domestic consumption, etc.）, RMB real exchange rate will still keep in undervaluation, but with the everlasting increase in productivity and radical improvement in domestic consumption, RMB real exchange rate will appreciate in the long run.