农村金融与非正规金融对农村经济增长影响的比较研究

A comparative study of the influence of the rural finance and the non-regular finance on the growth of rural economy

根据1978～2007年浙江省统计数据资料,通过时间序列协整分析,并运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解分析了浙江省农村经济增长和农村金融发展之间的相互影响情况和响应路径,同时就民间金融对农村经济增长支持的作用进行了分析。结果表明:浙江省农村金融、民间金融和农村经济增长之间存在着紧密的联系,并具有长期均衡关系。农村金融对经济增长有阻碍作用,但民间金融支持农村经济效果显著。

According to the statistical datas of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2007 year, the paper utilizes the time series co-integration analysis, impulse response function and forecasting variance decomposition to analyze mutual influence between rural economy growth and rural finance development in Zhejiang Province. The author also studies how local financial supports rural economy growth. The findings indicate that there are the close relations between the rural finance, the local financial and the rural economy growth. They have the long-term balanced relations. The rural finance has the hindrance function to the economic growth, and the local financial backing rural economy effect is remarkable. Finally, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions for the rural finance development.