2008年北京奥运会重大公共卫生事件风险评价方法的研究

Methodology of risk assessment for major public health events during Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

目的为科学开展北京奥运会公共卫生安全保障筹备工作,确定奥运筹备阶段政府及相关部门风险管理工作重点,为实施风险管理和制定重大传染病疫情保障方案提供科学依据,首先研究各种事件风险评价的具体方法,为重大公共卫生事件风险评估打下基础。方法采用经验判断、Delphi专家咨询、专家评议、风险矩阵分析等方法,结合管理学、社会学、流行病学理论,建立奥运会期间可能的公共卫生重大事件的风险评估的具体方法。结果确定了传染病疫情事件、食品安全事件、生活饮用水安全事件、病媒生物引起的公共卫生事件以及其他公共卫生事件等5类45种有可能对2008年奥运会和残奥会产生较大影响的公共卫生风险,建立对其风险发生可能性、风险严重程度及风险水平具体评估的方法和指标体系。结论此方法和指标体系的建立,为2008年北京奥运会重大公共卫生事件风险评估打下科学基础,进而为推进北京奥运会公共卫生保障筹备工作提供了直接决策依据和指导建议;为实现公共卫生事件风险动态评估、早期预警提供了科学数据和技术支持;切实推进了奥运公共卫生安全保障筹备工作的进行。

Objective To explore methods of risk assessment for varied events in order to lay foundations for risk assessment of major public health events and provide scientific evidence for implementation of risk management, formulation of safeguarding plans for control and prevention of major infectious diseases, development of activities in public health safety and identification of priorities in risk management associated with public health safety to support governments and relevant sectors in preparation for Beijing 29^th Olympics and 13^th Paralympies. Methods Based on theories of management, sociology and epidemiology, judgment by experience, Delphi＇s expert consultation, expert review and risk matrix analysis were adopted in this study to establish methods of risk assessment for major public health events during Beijing 2008 Olympics and Paralympies. Results Major risks of 45 kinds of public health events, which could seriously influence Beijing 2008 Olympics and Paralympics, were identified and assessed, including outbreaks of infectious diseases, issues in food safety and drinking water, public health events associated with pathogen of vector-born diseases and other events, and methods of risk assessment and its indicator system were established for assessment of the probability, severity and level of public health risks, based on historical data and information of public health events in Beijing. Conclusion The established methods of risk assessment and its indicator system lay scientific foundation for risk assessment, safeguard of public health, decision-making and suggestions during Beijing 2008 Olympics, provide scientific evidence and technical support to dynamic risk assessment of public health events, and promote public health safety during preparatory stage of Beijing 2008 Olympics.