基于优化GM(1，1)模型的可视化沉降预测数据的精度研究

Research on accuracy of visualized settlement prediction based on optimized GM(1,1)

软土地基的最终沉降变形对于高速公路、铁路、机场及港口码头等建设工程的设计安全及正常使用影响重大,从用灰色理论进行沉降预测的结果看,模型的取值直接决定了预测结果的准确性.如何取值、按什么规律取值是灰色理论计算准确性的核心.为此,基于优化的GM(1,1)模型,开发了用VB语言编写的沉降预测灰色可视化软件,通过对不同时间间隔的取值进行精度分析,并将预测结果与实际监测数椐进行对比,表明该方法能够更为精准地预测软土地基沉降,具有工程实用价值.

The final settlement deformation of soft soil foundation has great impact on design safety and normal usage of constructing project such as highway, railway, airport and port terminal. In light of the settlement prediction result of grey model （GM）, the selected value of GM directly determines the correctness of prediction result. Therefore how to select value and the rule to select value is the core of accuracy of GM. Based on optimized GM（1,1）, grey-visualization soft- ware for settlement prediction was developed by VB. Through analysis on accuracy of different time intervals as well as compare between prediction result and actual inspected data, it is demonstrated that this method can predict settlement of soft soil foundation more accurately and has practical engineering value.