可耗竭资源开采中的资源税征收预期影响研究

Study on effect of taxes expectation on exhaustible resources extraction

资源税是促使资源有效开采的一条重要途径.首先分别建立了资源开采有效、开采不足和开采过量的优化开采模型,得到相应的资源价格的优化路径;然后描述了资源税征收预期过程,利用全概率公式推导出各时刻征收资源税的概率,进而建立了征收预期下优化开采模型,得到保证资源有效开采的资源税表达式.结果表明:在特定条件下政策预期可转变为征税或不征税两种状态,政府只有创造条件引导政策预期转为征收资源税,才能使资源有效开采;状态转换时间及税率大小随参数变化而变化.

Taxes is one of important ways to promote extracting resources efficiently. Firstly the optimal extraction models of resources extraction, under-extraction and over-extraction are built, respectively. The optimal paths of resources price are obtained. Then the taxes levy expectation is described. By using total probability formula, probability of levy resource taxes is derived. In the end, the optimal control model of extraction under levy expectation is built to extract resources efficiently and the taxes are computed. The results show that under some condition, the problem of taxes levying expectation can degenerate to levying resources taxes or no resources taxes. In order to assure resources extraction efficiently, government must induct policy expectation into the state of taxes. Time of change of the sizes and taxes depend on some parameters.