沈阳市未来城市扩展模拟预案研究

Research on Scenario Simulation of Future Urban Growth of Shenyang City

利用基于遥感手段获取的沈阳市城市发展历史数据对SLEUTH模型进行校正,对未来（2005-2030年）的城市扩展过程进行不同生态环境保护政策下的情景模拟,并对其扩展格局和生态环境影响进行分析与比较。结果显示,未来沈阳市城市化进程将进入一个加速发展阶段;2016年以后各政策预案条件下的城市扩展格局和可持续性呈现出明显的差异;目前趋势发展预案（Ⅰ）下,城市扩展导致大量的土地资源被侵占,城市景观格局日益复杂化;环境保护发展预案（Ⅱ）和生态可持续发展预案（Ⅲ）下城市扩展空间受到较大约束,部分自然资源得以保护,城市扩展格局在模拟期内相对比较紧凑;研究表明必须采取严格的城市规划与增长管理措施,引导和控制沈阳市未来城市扩展,保护基本农田和城市生态支撑系统;SLEUTH模型为城市土地资源可持续利用提供了一种有用的规划工具。

SELUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth pattern and to explore its potential environmental impacts under different eco-environment protection levels in Shenyang city. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data extracted from the time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was projected out to 2030 assuming three different development scenarios： （1） current trend development （Scenario Ⅰ ）, （2） environmental protection development （Scenario Ⅱ ）, and （3） ecologically sustainable development （Scenario Ⅲ ）. Scenario analysis showed that urban expansion would be accelerated under all the scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. The urban development under Scenario I would lead to substantial loss of land resource than the other two with higher levels of growth constraints, and urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex, In contrast, the urban growth under Scenario Ⅱ and Ⅲ cpnsumed less land resource and show relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it was crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and protect primary farmland and support system of urban ecology in Shenyang. And SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources.