基于DYRESM模型的太湖全年水温模拟及其在水华预警中的应用

Water-Temperature Simulation of Taihu Lake Based on DYRESM Model and Its Application in the Fore-Warning of Cyanobacteria-Bloom

水温是湖泊生态系统的重要驱动因子,太湖蓝藻水华暴发过程与湖泊全年水温变化密切相关。本文从水温角度出发,运用澳大利亚西澳大学水研究中心开发的一维DYRESM水动力学模型模拟了太湖2005全年的水温变化状况,并通过太湖2005年水温实测值进行了验证,模型结果较好的反应了2005年太湖逐日水温的变化情况。另外从水温角度对太湖蓝藻水华暴发阶段作出分析,为太湖蓝藻水华暴发的预测预警研究进行了方法上的准备和探索。

Water temperature, one of the most important driving factors of lake＇s ecological system, is indispensable to the cyanobacteria--bloom of Taihu Lake. This paper implements the one--dimensional DYRESM hydrodynamic model, which was developed by the Centre for Water Research at the University of Western Australia, by simulating the water temperature of Taihu Lake in 2005, the result is validated well by the measured water temperature of the lake in 2005. Based on the water temperature, the different stages of eyanobacteria--bloom of the lake is analyzed, and therefore it prepares and explores the method of the forecast and warning of cyanobacteria--bloom in Taihu Lake.