山西省乡镇最高最低气温预报方法

The maximum and minimum air temperatureforecasting way of town in Shanxi province

应用2003年-2006年T213数值产品，通过动力统计释用（MOS），分季建立了山西省109站日极端气温预报模型；采用M-γ尺度气候模式，通过分季节、分天空状况模拟和检验，得到不同背景下乡镇与县站气温差额分布，依此，在较高质量的分县预报基础上，经过订正得到乡镇日极端气温的预报产品，取得较好的效果，弥补了目前乡镇自动站基础资料的不足，为乡镇精细化极端气温预报提供了新思路和新技术。

Based on the numerical T213 products from 2003 to 2006 and by the dynamic and statistic interpretation （MOS）, set up the forecasting extreme temperature model for the 109 weather station in Shanxi province in different season. By M -γ- scale climate models and according to the different season and the condition of sky simulating and testing, the distribution of the temperature difference was obtained. And so, the daily forecasting products of the extreme temperature of each town was obtained based on higher quality forecasting of every county and by revising and have a better effect. It covers the shortage of the data of automatically weather station of town in Shanxi and provides a new ideas and new technologies for the refinement of the extreme temperature of the township.