把握形势变化 谨慎选择降息

A cautious choice on interest rate reduction in accordance with the changing macro economic developments

该文用央行票据收益率作为政策目标利率的替代进行分析,认为我国的降息空间有限;并进一步分析指出,降息可能存在不利于经济结构调整、增加银行业的风险以及会加重公众悲观预期等负面影响;文章最后认为是否降息、何时降息,还要根据经济形势的变化,顺势而为、谨慎选择。

The paper takes the central bank bill yield as the substitution of policy＇s target rate and believes that the scope for interest rate cut is limited in China. Furthermore, it points out that any reduction in interest rate may have a negative impact such as it would go against economic structure adjustment, increase the banking industry＇s risks and aggravate the public＇s already pessimistic outlook. Finally, the article thinks that the action and timing of the interest rate cut should be chosen cautiously based on the changing economic situation.