经济增长对石油需求及石油价格影响的计量分析

A Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Economic Growth on Oil Demand and World Oil Price

通过两阶段回归模型对石油价格的分析及模拟,定量分析了中国经济增长对石油价格的影响。结果显示,如果中国保持8%的经济增长,世界石油价格到2010年将升高1.70%-2.30%。到2030年世界石油价格将升高7.94%-10.48%。从长远来看,对世界石油价格确有一定影响。从石油使用效率来看,中国比美国低44.28%,假如中国提高到美国的石油使用效率水平,全世界就可节约成本160亿美元。面对未来国际能源发展的新形势和世界石油价格波动冲击,需要世界各国共同努力。重视石油科技的研究与开发利用,提高能源使用效率。

This paper employs a two-stage regression model to estimate the relationship between the economic growth and oil prices and simulates various economic growth scenarios to quantify the price of oil. The main findings of this paper show that in the short to medium term the market price resulting from China excessive growth could rise 1.70 and 2.30 percent in 2010, but this could be manageable and could feasibly be compensated for. Facing the new situation of international energy development and oil price problem, all the countries should join together on technological research in petroleum and increasing energy utilization efficiency.