浙江省对外贸易对经济增长方式转变影响:基于协整理论的实证研究

The Impact of Foreign Trade in Zhejiang on the Changing of Economic Growth Mode

本文基于浙江省1986-2006年GDP和进出口的相关数据对浙江省外贸和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算了外贸依存度、贡献率、拉动度及弹性四个指标。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对浙江省对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:存在出口到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系。同时建立误差修正模型(ECM)得到了较好的拟合结果,为出口贸易促进经济增长假说(ELG)提供了新证据。

Based on the data of Zhejiang GDP and import ＆ export in 1986-2006, this paper analyzes the operating path of Zhejiang trade and economy, and measures the influence of four indicators, dependence on foreign, contribution rate, pulling degree and flexibility, on Zhejiang foreign trade and economic growth. And then, the paper uses cointegration theory and Granger causality test methods to empirically analyze the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Zhejiang province. The results show that： there exists unidirectional Granger causality from export to economic growth. At the same time, through the establishment of error correction model （ECM）, the paper gives a good fitting result, thus provides a new evidence for the hypothesis of exports led growth （EL）.