我国粮食生产的波动性及增长趋势:基于H-P滤波法的实证研究

The volatility and growth trend of grain production in China:Empirical study based on H-P filtering method

实现粮食持续增产对保障我国粮食安全战略具有重要意义。本文采用H-P滤波法实证分析了1978—2007年我国粮食生产的波动性及其增长趋势问题,研究结果表明:我国粮食生产具有明显的"波动中增长"的特征,在品种结构、区域分布和影响因素等方面,粮食生产波动均具有非对称特征。粮食产量波动对稻米产量波动最为敏感,对东部地区(特别是江苏、浙江、河北)的粮食生产波动最为敏感,对粮食单产水平波动最为敏感。未来我国粮食生产仍将保持增长趋势,但粮食单产以及由此决定的粮食总产量与目标值相比仍存在一定的差距。依据结论,可以给出我国实现粮食持续增产的若干政策含义。

Consistent growth in grain production is of great importance to the grain security strategy in China. By H- P filtering method, this article conducts empirical analysis on the volatility and growth trend of China＇ s grain production during the period of 1978-2007. The results suggest that： the production has distinct feature of ＂growing in volatility＂, and as for other aspects, such as variety structure, regional distribution and influential factors, such volatility is asymmetric. The volatility of national grain output is most sensitive to the changes in rice yield, to the fluctuation of grain production in the east areas （especially, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hebei）, and to the horizontal fluctuation of unit grain output. In the future, China＇ s grain production will maintain growth trend, but there remains certain gap between unit grain output, total output and the target level. According to the result, this article suggests several policy implications for consistent grain growth in China.