浙江经济增长波动与当前对策

Fluctuation in Zhejiang Economic Growth and Present Measures

改革开放30年来,浙江经济增长出现了四个周期,呈现出两大特征:一是经济波动逐步从大起大落的古典型波动向适度高位、平滑运行的增长型波动转变;二是经济体制改革和投资冲击的影响趋于缓和、全球化因素的影响相对加强。历史经验表明,经济波动往往是战略转型的重要契机。当前,浙江经济面临复杂严峻的发展局面,这是经济周期、经济转型两方面内因和全球金融危机共同作用的结果。为化危为机,笔者最后提出了构建经济内循环体系等五方面对策建议。

In the 30years since reform and opening-up, there have appeared four periods in Zhejiang economic growth with two major features. One is the gradual transformation of economic fluctuation from classic drastic fluctuation to growing sliding fluctuation, and the other is that the influence of the reform in the economic system and the investment impact tend to ease up while the influence of globalization factors strengthened. Historical experiences show that economic fluctuation is always an important opportunity for strategic transit. Presently, Zhejiang economy faces complicated severe development situation, which results from the joint effect of the global financial crisis and the internal causes of the economic period and the economic transformation. To change the crisis into opportunity, the author proposes measures in the five respects of construeting economic internal circulation system, etc.