电网电压质量评估的概率统计分析方法应用研究

Research on probability and statistics analysis application of power network voltage quality

电力系统运行中电压质量的分析评估是一项非常重要的任务,通过对电压质量的分析评估可以对当前电力系统设备的运行情况、系统健康状况等一系列问题做出评价。首先分析了目前国内现行的电网电压质量统计考核方法和澳大利亚越网的统计分析方法,并进行比较分析其优缺点,在此基础上结合概率统计理论提出了一种新的分析电压质量指标的应用方法,该方法运用数学期望与方差估计分析电压的时域特性及概率分布,以期更直观更科学的评价电压质量。最后使用该方法对山东电网电压质量进行了实例评估分析。

Voltage quality evaluation is a very important task in the course of the electric power system. This paper analyzes the methods of the voltage quality evaluation which are used in domestic and oversea. In order to evaluate voltage quality more audio-visual and more scientific, it brings forward a new applied method to analyze the voltage quality using probability statistics. And the method analyzes the voltage time-domain attributes and probability distribution using mathematic expectation and estimate of variance. At last, the new way by using the proposed method in Shandong electric power network is illustrated.