用多普勒雷达对三次强对流天气的短时预报对比分析

Comparative Analysis on Short-time Forecast of Three Strong Convection Weather Processes by Doppler Weather Radar

利用2006年6月12日夜间、7月12日凌晨和7月12日夜间天津地区3次强对流降水过程的多普勒雷达产品资料,对比分析发现:在降水的开始和成熟阶段,多普勒雷达径向速度场的变化一般先于回波强度场的变化,在做降水短时预报时应重点关注多普勒雷达径向速度场的变化,同时还可参考Auto-nowcaster系统的预报结果,通过判断未来雷达回波的强度变化及移动方向,提高对强对流降水过程的短时预报准确率。

A comparative analysis is made with the application of the Doppler weather radar data of three strong convection precipitations at the night of June 12, in the wee hours and night of July 12, 2006 in Tianjin region. The results show that the change of the radial velocity field often precedes that of echo intensity field of Doppler weather radar during the beginning and mature stage of precipitation. It indicates that the effort on the short-time forecast of precipitation should be focused on the change of radial velocity field and also refer to the forecast outcome of Autonowcasting system. The accuracy in the short-time forecast of strong convection precipitation process can be improved through judging the intensity change and moving direction of radar echo.