基于投资视角的我国寿险需求实证研究

Empirical Analysis on Life Insurance Demand in China:Based on Investment Incentiveinglai

寿险的微观功能可以分为风险保障和投资收益两大方面,传统的寿险需求实证研究视角多局限于支付能力和风险保障,对投资功能少有涉及。本文在研究角度上,着力强调用投资视角理解寿险需求。通过对1997—2005各年各省市个人寿险保费收入面板数据的实证分析发现:中国个人寿险需求的主要驱动因素是投资动机和寻求养老保障的储蓄动机,而寻求死亡保障的动机不足;其他金融资产收益率变动对个人寿险的影响以替代效应为主。另外,我们还对全国1999—2007年各月寿险需求进行了实证研究,创造性地采用面板数据方法研究月度保费收入数据。结果表明:保费收入相邻各月的连续性较差,而年度联系较强;股票指数的变化趋势对保费收入造成显著的负向影响,而通货膨胀对寿险业务发展的正面作用也不容忽视。

The micro-function of life insurance contains two aspects：risk protection and investment.Most previous studies in this field focused on the insurance affordability and risk protection,while this paper pays more attention on the investment incentives.We investigate the demand for individual life insurance ,using the 1997-2005 panel data for each province of China, and find that investment and longevity protection are primary purposes for the consumers.The individual life insurance purchases also have significant substitution effect on other financial assets.We also explore the nationwide monthly written business during the period of 1999-2007 with the panel data model.The results show that the monthly linkage between written-premiums is relatively weak,while the yearly linkage between corresponding months is relatively high.The stock index fluctuation has a significantly negative impact on insurance purchase,and the positive influence of inflation on premium written can not be ignored ,too.