中国城乡迁移年龄模式的研究

Research on Age specific Mode of Urban rural Population Migration in China

分析了中国１９９０年人口普查问卷中迁移项目的特点，指出从原始数据估计迁移人口迁移年龄的困难及克服此困难所必须引入的假定，提出了在较弱的假定下估计各种按龄迁移人口及按龄人口迁移率的方法。据此方法可得出１９８５年到１９８９年四年间平均按龄迁移量、平均按龄人口数及平均按龄迁移率。作为应用，对“四普”中城乡人口迁移的年龄模式进行了分析，并与联合国人口迁移的年龄模式进行了比较。

The paper analyses the migration characteristics of the data of the Fourth Census in China at first, the author points out the difficulties to estimate the age of migration from the Census data and the assumptions to overcome these difficulties.The paper proposes a method to estimate the age specific migration quantities and the rate of age specific migration under comparative weak assumptions.The average quantities, average rate of age spcific migration and average age specific population in the four years from 1985 to 1989 can be estimated by using this method.As an application, we analyse the urban rural age specific migration mode of the Fourth Census of China and compare is with the United Nation migration age specific mode,and finally find out the special age specific mode of urban rural migration of china. This research has great significances to urbanization and dynamic of population migration studies between rural and urban areas.