城市私人汽车与住房发展关系研究

Study on Interactions between the Growth of Urban Housing and Private Cars

建立了系统动力学模型，模拟和预测北京住房、公共交通和小轿车的发展关系。该模型计算结果表明，要解决紧迫的住房问题，必须限制小轿车的数量。若有足够的数据支持，并加以细化。

This paper presents a systems dynamics model developed by authors to simulate the interaction among urban housing, public and private transportation development and to forecast their future trends.The model indicates that private cars must be curbed in Beijing before the housing shortage can be alleviated.If more data are available and the model is further refined,it can be used as a powerful tool for the governments in China to make their decisions on urban development.