北江枯季中期预报的线性响应模型

A Linear Response Model for Middle-Term Forecast in LowWater Season in Beijiang River

通过对北江流域的自然地理条件和枯季水文特征的分析，采用一种以多元线性回归方法为基础的一种黑箱模型——径流线性响应模型，假设流域符合叠加原理，以降雨、径流作为输入、输出，用最小二乘法率定参数，对石角站实测旬径流进行了模拟和预报，模型取得了令人满意的结果。

Based on the analyses of the natural geographical conditions and the hydrological characteristics of Beijiang River catchment in lowwater season,a blacktank modellinear response model builded on a multivariate linear regression method is used to simulate and predict the tendays runoff at Shijiao station. In the experiment, the parameters are determined through the least squares method.The simulated results agree quite well with the observational results.