改革开放以来甘肃经济发展动态分析——基于产业结构演进的角度

THE DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN GANSU SINCE REFORM AND OPENING UP——Based on the Perspective of the Industrial Structure Evolution

改革开放以来,甘肃经济发展与全国各省市的差距逐渐扩大,产业结构不合理是重要原因之一,本文运用一系列衡量产业结构状况、产业结构演变、产业结构对就业、城镇化促进作用等方面的相关指标,定量分析了1978—2006年期间甘肃产业演进的动态特征,并与江苏、全国同期水平进行比较,结果表明甘肃在产业结构方面存在很大差距,进一步用偏额分量分析法分三个阶段评价了产业结构、产业竞争力对甘肃经济增长的影响,综合前面分析,找出甘肃产业结构演进中存在的问题及原因,并提出了相关建议。

Since the reform and opening up, the gap in the economic development between Gansu and the other provinces is becoming wider. The evolution of the industrial structure is not in line with the general rules of evolution of industrial structure in Gansu. The paper, first, uses the relevant indicators to give the quantitative analysis on the conditions of industrial structure, the evolution of industrial structure and the effect of industrial structure to the promotion of employment and urbanization in 1978-2006. The dynamic features of the evolution of industrial industry and the the economic impact are obtained. Then, the paper further uses the partial component method to analyze the impact of the evaluation of industrial structure and the industrial competitiveness on the impact of economic growth in Gansu in three stages, the results showthat： to begin with, the actual growth of the first industry has always been lower than the national level, its growth mainly relies on the lead of industrial development in all the country. Furthermore, the competitiveness of the second industrial is very weak and its actual growth is below the national level in the former two phases, but the industrial structure has been optimized and the competitiveness has been enhanced because the deviation component and the competitiveness components all get positive since 2000. Lastly, the development of the third industry is better than the first and the second industries with the improvement of the internal structure, so the third industry has the potential to become the best competitive industry. In a word, the development level of the first industry is so backward that it can not provide the necessary accumulation and effective demand for the development of the second and third ones. The second industry is the only virtually high level under repeated construction, the growth rate of the third industry is relatively faster. The contradictions in all the inner industrial structures, the overall development of economy in Gansu are only the quantity leap of the continuation and expansion, but not a leap of quality, the sustainable development of economy and society is seriously constrained by the irrational industrial structures in Gansu. At last, the paper identifies the problems and the reasons in the evolution of the industrial structures and puts forward the relevant proposals.