使用概率模型的桥梁维护成本计算方法研究

Calculation Method for Bridge Maintenance Cost Using on Probability Model

基于改进的事件树模型,考虑维护活动的相关性以及维护时间的不确定性,建立了桥梁的维护成本计算公式;推导了在维护过程中由于交通耽搁、交通堵塞以及改线所造成的燃油消耗成本、收费损失等用户成本以及社会成本的评估公式.由于桥面铺装属易损结构,其维护对交通流将产生很大的干扰,本文通过一座桥梁桥面的维护进行实例计算,验证了该计算方法的有效性.同时对折现率、分析基准年等参数进行了分析,得出其对成本分析的影响规律.该方法适用于新建的或既有的桥梁劣化结构,同时该方法适用于在可预见的维护策略下的一座或一组桥梁的成本计算.该方法和结果对桥梁基于全寿命成本设计、维护和管理具有一定的参考价值.

Based on a modified event tree model, a series of calculation formulations associated with bridge maintenance cost was proposed considering the uncertainties of maintenance interventions. User cost, which includes fuel consumption cost, bridge toll cost and social cost, were evaluated due to traffic delay, jam and detour during maintenance actions. Bridge wearing surface is easily damaged, and the maintenance of the wearing surface will seriously affect traffic conditions. Hence, an illustrative example of bridge wearing surface was used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The discount rate and the base year were analyzed to investigate the influence on cost analysis. This method is suitable for application to both new and existing bridges under various maintenance strategies, and also can be used for a bridge, or group of bridges, requiring maintenance in the foreseeable future. The formulations and results can be taken as a basis for bridge design, maintenance and management related to whole- life cost.