极值风速概率方法研究进展

Advance in research on extreme wind speed models

极值风速的研究对于工程结构的设计和安全使用具有重要的现实意义。阐述了极值风速的研究背景,综述了国内外极值风速的研究进展,对比研究了近年来最新的极值风速概率模型,包括3种极值分布(Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ)以及POT方法、MIS法、R-LOS法和相应的改进方法。在比较各种方法优缺点和适用条件的同时,针对不同的概率分布模型,分别给出了具体所采用的合理的参数估计方法,如最小二乘法、最大似然函数法、概率加权矩法和矩法。同时对极值风速的不同方法研究现状进行了总结,最后针对当前的一些热点问题进行了展望。

Extreme wind speed has great significance for the designers. In this paper, methods to calculate extreme wind speeds were described and reviewed, such as classical methods based on the generalized extreme value （GEV） and its three types ： Type Ⅰ , Ⅱ and Ⅲ and the generalized Pareto distribution. The paper pays attentfon to several methods ： annual maxima, peak - over - threshold approach （ POT）, method of independent storms （MIS） and the R-largest order statistical （ R - LOS）. Moreover, several methods like the method of moment, the method of maximum likelihood estimation and the least-square method were mentioned to estimate the parameters of different models. Finally, the paper overviews the problems that we face in this field and the trend of development.