摘要
引入灰色预测原理预测在役舰船装备的剩余使用寿命,通过设定一等时段舰船装备结构损伤系数时间数列、确定累加生成数列、利用最小二乘法求得相关参数值、求解微分方程等步骤建立GM(1,1)预测模型。然后利用残差修正偏差值并对模型进行修正。实例说明该方法简单适用,最终实现了舰船装备结构剩余使用寿命的预测。
This paper introduces gray system theory and its application in remanent life prediction for in-service warship equipments. We established prediction model by the following steps： setting time sequences for damage coefficient of warship equipment structure of equal time-intervals, determining accumulated generating sequences and obtaining relevant parameters by means of least square method, solving differential equations; then correcting the model by means of deviation values for residual modification. The practical examples show the method is simple and applicable, and can realize remanent life prediction for warship equipments.
出处
《兵工自动化》
2009年第5期29-31,33,共4页
Ordnance Industry Automation
