城市群协同应急决策生成理论研究

The coordinated emergency decision-making theory in urban agglomeration

应急决策比任何常规决策都更能考验决策机制和决策者的决策能力。为了有效地提高城市应急管理决策能力,本文引入了直觉决策、相机决策和群决策的思想方法和协同理论,重点研究了城市群协同应急决策模式和城市群协同应急决策机制。在应激式决策者知识激发和协同式群决策知识激发研究的基础上,提出了"应激—应急—应变"决策模式;在城市应急管理组织机构和城市群应急管理主体协同研究的基础上,提出了"学习—应急—协同"的应急决策模式,从不同的视角探讨了应急决策生成理论。

Emergency decision making can test the policymakers’decision-making mechanism and ability better than any other conventional decision making.In order to effectively improve the ability of cities’emergency decision making,many ideological methods,such as intuitive decision making,contingent decision making,group decision making,and synergy theory are introduced in the paper,with the focus on the coordinated emergency decision- making model and mechanism in an urban agglomeration.The decision-making model of 'being stressed-meeting emergency-coping skill' is proposed on the basis of the research on emergency decision-making theory from two different perspectives:the study of stressed decision-makers’knowledge stimulating and the study of coordinated group decision-making knowledge stimulating;the model of 'learning-meeting emergency-coordinating' is provided on the basis of the research on city emergency management organizations and synergy theory between emergency management subjects in an urban agglomeration.