盾构滚刀磨损的多元非线性回归预测

Forecast of wear shield's disc cuttersbased on multivariate nonlinear regression

为了解决硬岩地层盾构滚刀的磨损检测问题,提出了一种基于多元非线性回归预测模型预测滚刀磨损的方法。利用滚刀正常磨损阶段的盾构掘进参数数据建立回归预测模型,根据依此模型预测的掘进速度与实际掘进速度偏差来预测滚刀的磨损状况。结合盾构工程项目研究结果表明:预测模型是正确的,预测结果与实际换刀情况是相符的,预测方法是有效的。研究结论可为类似地质条件下的盾构滚刀磨损检测和更换提供有益的指导。

To solve the problem of the estimation of shield＇s disc cutters wear in hard rock stratnm, a method to forecast the disc cutters wear based on the forecast model of multivariate nonlinear regression is presented. The model is established by using the data of excavation parameters of shield in the initial stage of disc cutters wear. The disc cutters wear is forecast according to the difference between the actual excavation velocity and the excavation velocity predicted by the model. The case study of shield project shows that the forecast model is right, the forecast result accords with the cutters change and the method is feasible. This provides the beneficial guidance for the estimation of disc cutters wear and the replace of disc cutters under similar geological conditions.